1000 True Fans is Bullsh*t
Is 1000 True Fans a reasonable way to think about creativity?
Kevin Kelly wrote a viral essay in 2008 (and updated it more recently) where he said that a creative could make a reasonable living if only they can attract the love and admiration (and money) of one thousand people.
You don’t need to aim for superstardom because a modest, but dedicated audience is sufficient to keep yourself fed and sheltered while working exclusively on your art.
From the essay:
A true fan is defined as a fan that will buy anything you produce. These diehard fans will drive 200 miles to see you sing; they will buy the hardback and paperback and audible versions of your book; they will purchase your next figurine sight unseen; they will pay for the “best-of” DVD version of your free youtube channel; they will come to your chef’s table once a month. If you have roughly a thousand of true fans like this (also known as super fans), you can make a living…
It may be true that if you get to the point where enough people are obsessed with you and your art, you can make a living from it, which is the dream. But is it easy to get to that point?
Not. At. All.
It takes years of consistent and innovative output to get anywhere close to 1000 True Fans for most creators. Many will never get there.
Why not?
What is a fan, anyway?
It’s true that creators cultivate closer relationships with their fans than ever before, and I’m not just talking about small, ‘cult’ followings. In the age where fans get a name (Little Monsters, Swifties, Beliebers) and stars send their crew into crowds to pick people for meet-and-greets, there’s never been a better time to be a fan.
But ask yourself this: how many people are you a True Fan of? How many people will you follow around and buy all their merch and consume everything they produce? Especially over a long timeframe. Can you think of any?
What Kevin is talking about are Superfans.
According to research, these specific personality types respond to things that excite them more strongly than the average. They may naturally have higher levels of oxytocin in their brains (an experience that can be replicated synthetically), and they probably make up around 15% of the general population. They account for an outsized proportion of purchasing, so are the key demographic of any creative.
Are there enough Superfans to go around?
I guess it depends on how many creatives there are. I couldn’t find a number, but from what I see in my life, almost everyone would be if they could be. But even if it’s only 5%, are there enough Superfans to support them all?
The back of my envelope says no, especially since many of the Superfans will follow the biggest stars. So, maybe you need a few Superfans and some shifting fans. People who dip in and out of your content in a more measured way. That seems more reasonable.
The creator economy makes it easier than ever to reach a direct audience
Obviously, 1000 is an arbitrary number, and I guess it doesn’t have to be the same 1000 people across an artist’s career, but as long as someone, somewhere, is obsessing about you, you can probably keep going.
Keeping close contact with those who enjoy your creative output is great, and the digitally enabled world we live in facilitates this like never before. Crowdsourcing albums, paid newsletter subscriptions, Patreon, and the like have made it easier than ever to reach a small but dedicated (and captive) audience, with very few middle-men. Hey, if a thousand people subscribe to your Substack at $100 a year, that’s a decent living, and seems reasonably achievable. As Kevin points out:
…the most obscure node is only one click away from the most popular node.
That’s great, but it’s still painstaking to build from the ground up (believe me).
And at the end of the day, none of this matters because…
The worst thing you can do for your creative output is focus on what people will think of it!
Everyone knows this intuitively.
If you are passionate about making amazing content, it turns out better than if you are obsessing about pleasing.
- Tomas Pueyo
The audience comes last. If you aim to please them, you’re not doing your job.
- Rick Rubin
Do whatever brings you to life. Follow your own fascinations, obsessions, and compulsions. Trust them. Create whatever causes a revolution in your heart.
-Elizabeth Gilbert
If you are only thinking about gaining those 1000 fans, turning ordinary people into obsessives who can’t get enough of you, you’re bound to fail. You need to be true to the work that you’re producing and the message you’re trying to convey.
But here’s the kicker:
It’s still important to have an audience
You should be publishing, gauging the response, and learning how and where you provide the most value.
Practicing your craft, taking notes, and iterating.
Figuring out what people enjoy and being considerate.
It seems like a paradox, right? You want to build up a dedicated fan base but you don’t want to think about pleasing others when you make your content.
But really, it’s not. You want to make the best quality content you can. You’re trying to make something valuable, and the reason to create in public is to maximise that. But the last thing you should be doing is obsessing over your stats. Watching your views or subscriptions ticking over. Waiting for the big, viral attention pay-day.
In this cutthroat world where everyone has a megaphone and the cream will float to the top, quantity beats quality. Accept that not everything you make will be amazing and make it anyway. Get it out there, and keep on creating.
With all the joy, awe, and wonder that is embedded in the creative process!
Takeaways
1000 True Fans is not a reasonable expectation for most creatives because it relies on attracting Superfans, who are a minority and busy following Rihanna and Stephen King
BUT
It’s easier than ever to gather a modest following of people who will pay something for your content
BUT
If you’re obsessing about how it will be received, the quality of your work will suffer
THEREFORE
Create with wild abandon, staying true to your inner compass
BUT
Publish publish publish, and monitor the response from the outside world
SO THAT
You can refine your skills and establish where your most valuable contribution lies.
Whether a job or a hobby, creation can be a magnificent process. Don’t ruin it for yourself by seeking 1000 True Fans!
Think you know someone who needs to hear this?
And don’t underestimate how much it means to touch that little heart and turn it red!
For all the Creators reading this - I think this is an unnecessarily cynical POV and also generally the wrong advice for anyone looking to make money from content.
Making a living as an Artist / Creator has literally NEVER been EASY - see the old trope about every waiter in LA being a failed actor - but it’s also literally NEVER been EASIER - see the 13 million full-time Creators last counted in the US.
It’s true artists should make as much content as possible. That’s always been true. What’s different is that artists also need to spend time and energy thinking about and executing on things like audience growth, community development, and general business management - including marketing, sales, and ops. Otherwise they will starve.
Lastly - the new paradigm isn’t 1000 true fans, it’s Li Jin’s 100 true fans. Lots of creators are getting $1000 a year from people who find real value in their work…so don’t aim low. Think about how to deliver $1000 worth of value!
I think the other difficult paradox to overcome (both mentally and commercially) is the network effect whereby "many of the Superfans will follow the biggest stars". But, of course, the biggest stars were also once the smallest.
So I manage to keep myself sane with the assumption that talent is only one part of a random, multi-factorial lottery which cannot be influenced and taking any n=1 approach to the long-tail is doomed.